| Year : |
2025 |
| Volume : |
71 |
| Issue : |
3 |
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| Authors : |
Morteza GHEYSOURI, Mahin KALEHHOUEI, Velibor SPALEVIC, Aref SABERI, Somayeh SOLTANI-GERDEFARAMARZI, Benli LIU, Peng LI |
| Title : |
ASSESSING AND FORECASTING THE FUTURE OF WATER LEVELS DUE TO LAND-USE CHANGES ALONG THE COASTS |
| Abstract : |
Understanding the components of the water balance and predicting their future changes is essential for developing effective water resource management strategies. In recent years, the basin surrounding Lake Urmia has experienced significant growth in population, industrial activities, and agricultural expansion, all of which have had a considerable impact on the region’s hydrological systems. This study examines the influence of land-use changes on the water levels of Lake Urmia. Land-use data for six specific years: 2001, 2005, 2010, 2015, 2020, and 2023 were analyzed. The analysis was conducted at three buffer zones located 10, 20 and 30 km from the lake’s coastline, to assess how land-use dynamics at varying proximities influence the lake’s water levels over time. The Pearson correlation test was applied to analyze the relationship between different land-use types and the lake’s surface area over a 23-year period, using the NDWI index to assess water levels. Additionally, the ARIMA time series model was used to forecast the surface area of Lake Urmia from 2030. The study also investigated how land-use changes in 2023 influenced the lake’s water area during the forecast period. The results showed that the highest concentrations of cropland, urban areas, and barren lands were located along the coastal strip (within the 10 km buffer). As the distance from the lake increased, the area of cropland decreased, while rangeland increased in the 20-30 km buffers. Furthermore, an inverse relationship between cropland area and lake water levels was found. As population growth and the efficiency of water use for cropland increased, the water levels of Lake Urmia declined. This suggests that land-use changes and water management practices are key factors affecting the lake’s water levels. The study also identified the adverse impacts of improper dam constructions upstream and a lack of water rights downstream on the lake’s water levels. Future predictions using the ARIMA model (100) indicated an upward trend in the lake’s water levels, driven by reduced drought, decreased unauthorized wells and cropland, and enhanced international and national cooperation on water rights. Sustainable water resource management can be achieved through the use of numerical models and remote sensing maps |
| For citation : |
Gheysouri, M., Kalehhouei, M., Spalevic, V., Saberi, A., Soltani-Gerdefaramarzi, S., Liu, B., & Li, P. (2025). Assessing and Forecasting the Future of Water Levels Due to Land-Use Changes along the Coasts. Agriculture and Forestry, 71(3), 47-70. https://doi.org/10.17707/AgricultForest.71.3.03 |
| Keywords : |
Buffer Zones, Coastal strip, Remote Sensing Data, Water Balance |
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