The Journal "Agriculture and Forestry"
Časopis "Poljoprivreda i šumarstvo"
- Since 1955 -
Year 2021, Volume 67 Issue 4 (15.12.2021)
| Year : | 2021 |
| Volume : | 67 |
| Issue : | 4 (15.12.2021) |
| Authors : | Satith SANGPRADID, Yannawut UTTARUK,Tanutdech ROTJANAKUSOL, Teerawong LAOSUWAN |
| Title : | FORECASTING TIME SERIES CHANGE OF THE AVERAGE ENHANCED VEGETATION INDEX TO MONITORING DROUGHT CONDITION BY USING TERRA/MODIS DATA |
| Abstract : | Drought condition is a natural disaster that has caused economic and social damages considerably including a shortage of consuming water, and has been a hindrance to the agricultural production and industrial development. Currently, the drought condition tends to be more severe in Yasothon Province of Thailand, thus affecting plantation in the area. The purpose of this study was to monitor the drought condition of Yasothon Province, which is located in the Northeastern region of Thailand, by using Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) data during 2010 – 2019 obtained from Terra/Modis Satellite, and by studying the change in time series from the average EVI during 2010 – 2019, for the forecast in 2020 – 2022 by using moving averages method and exponential smoothing method in order to compare the differences between the original data of average EVI and the data of average EVI adjusted by smoothing algorithm using RMMEH method. Statistics used in examining the forecasting accuracy were MAD and MAPE. It was found from the study that MAD and MAPE of the forecast of the original average EVI and the average EVI adjusted by using RMMEH method were slightly different in that the average EVI adjusted by using RMMEH method and forecasted by moving averages method was best accurate. In addition, according to the time series change forecast of EVI, it was found that the original average EVI and the EVI which was smoothed by RMMEH method of the forecasting year during 2020 – 2022 by using moving average method and exponential smoothing method were very low in each year, indicating that the drought would occur in the future. |
| For citation : | Sangpradid, S., Uttaruk, Y.,Rotjanakusol, T., Laosuwan T. (2021): Forecasting time series change of the average enhanced vegetation index to monitoring drought condition by using terra/modis data. Agriculture and Forestry, 67 (4): 115-129. doi:10.17707/AgricultForest.67.4.10 |
| Keywords : | Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), Remote Sensing, Drought, RMMEH method |
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